Projections of Sea Level Rise by 2100 & its Impact on Long Island
Anthony Nguyen
GCEP/SURE Program - Summer '99
Mentor: Rangasayi Halthore
Brookhaven National Laboratory
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Sea level rise is one of the most recognizable impacts of global warming. Sea level rise could cause large displacement of people, since half of human populations live near the coast. However, the magnitude of sea level rise and its regional impacts are not well defined to confidently assess response strategies. Therefore, I examined the impacts of a projected rise on Long Island, New York. I studied projections of sea level rise by 2100 from several global circulation models with emphasis on the CGCMI from the Canadian Centre for Modeling and Analysis (CCMa). The CCMa vertically integrated the specific volume of the ocean to compute sea level rise due only to thermal expansion. Since thermal expansion will contribute more than 50% to projected sea level rise(changes in glacial and ice sheet volume are the other contributors), total rise can be calculated. The water around Long Island will rise at an average of 25 cm by 2050 and 65 cm by 2100. I used a digital elevation model of Long Island to find how it will be affected by coastal inundation. The south shore is more vulnerable than the north shore because of its lack of bluffs and lower elevation. Brief studies of response strategies and relative sea level rise due to land movement were also done.


The Global Change Education Program is funded by the
U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Biological and Environmental Research